PLAYER INTELLIGENCE • INJURY IMPACT • MATCHUP ANALYSIS • MONEYLINE • SPREAD • TOTAL
V13.10 TEST · Black / Red / Silver · Live schedule and scores via ESPN · Sportsbook odds requested securely through your Cloudflare Worker
1. Load today's NBA games
Ready to load the ESPN scoreboard. Internet access is required.
2. Matchup & projections
V9 offers a hybrid projection: recent scoring plus optional verified offensive/defensive efficiency and pace inputs, with home-court and rest adjustments. The simulation engine models shared game-environment variation and team-specific scoring variation. V13.3 reads the official NBA injury report and applies role-weighted player impact estimates to the selected teams’ projections when reliable recent box scores are matched.
Manual overrides are optional. Automatic injury losses shown below are added to the base projections after matching players; the projected-points fields show the final adjusted values. Pace adjustment remains a manual total-points override.
V12 official NBA injury report
Use the official NBA PDF. Download the latest report, then load it here; the simulator extracts the selected teams' listed statuses locally.
Uses recent ESPN box-score points and minutes, with a role-weighting discount so low-minute bench players have little or no impact. This is an estimate of expected team scoring lost, not an official player on/off rating.
Away team estimated scoring loss
Not calculated
Home team estimated scoring loss
Not calculated
Load the official PDF and recent team projections to calculate player impact.
Model assumptions: Out = 100% unavailable; Doubtful = 75%; Questionable = 40%; Probable = 10%; Available = 0%. Role weight: under 8 MPG or 3 PPG = 0; under 15 MPG or 7 PPG = 0.15; under 25 MPG or 12 PPG = 0.50; otherwise 1. Replacement discount = 35% of recent PPG × role weight, capped at 8 points per team. Review every estimate before relying on it.
Starting-lineup controls are manual confirmations, not an automated lineup feed. The model does not assign a player-impact value when it cannot match that player to recent box scores.
V10 automatic team intelligence (retained in V11) V10 retrieves completed-game ESPN box scores and estimates offensive rating, defensive rating and pace from team box-score possessions (FGA − offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.44 × FTA). These are rolling estimates from recent games, not official NBA tracking metrics. If box-score fields are unavailable, the engine clearly falls back to the V9 score-based projection. You can still override the six values manually.
V8 uses correlated team scores: a shared pace/game-environment factor affects both teams, while separate team factors preserve independent scoring variation. Correlation is a modeling assumption, not a live measured statistic.
Enter American odds for each side, or load both sides from the configured Cloudflare Worker.
Select a matchup to calculate projections.
No matchup projection loaded yet. Do not treat default values as model projections.
V13.10 matchup analyzer — preliminary
Away directional score—
Home directional score—
Select a matchup and load valid projections to evaluate the matchup.
Directional score is a display-only index derived from the current adjusted projected-point margin (50 = even; higher favors that side). It is NOT a win probability, does not use independent historical validation, and does not change Monte Carlo inputs, market probabilities, expected value, or recommendations.
3. Sportsbook odds connection
Odds are requested through your Cloudflare Worker. Your API key stays stored in Cloudflare and should not be pasted into this page.
The free scoreboard feed does not include reliable pregame player props, injury reports, or advanced team ratings. Those require a separate data provider/feed.
Simulation results
Model estimates from the inputs above, not guaranteed outcomes.
Market comparison & expected value
4. Performance tracking & backtesting log
Each simulation is saved in this browser on this device. Refresh final scores to settle completed games from ESPN. Your history is local to this browser and is not uploaded to a server.
Historical projection backtest
Rebuilds the V8 baseline score projection using only completed games available before each game date: last 10 games blended 75% with the prior 45-day scoring baseline 25%, plus home-court and back-to-back adjustments. This is a pregame-only score/winner diagnostic, not a replay of the current V13.7 team-efficiency, injury, or Monte Carlo model. ESPN historical scoreboard coverage is required. Historical sportsbook closing lines and archived injury reports are not supplied here, so this test cannot calculate historical spread/total/ML ROI.
Choose up to 45 days per run. Run consecutive date windows to cover more of the season.
V13.9 full Monte Carlo model validation
Each eligible historical game is simulated 10,000 times for each of the four pregame-only projection blends. Moneyline probabilities are scored against the actual winner. Total and margin distributions are evaluated with CRPS and prediction-interval coverage. Historical sportsbook spread/total lines are not available, so this does not claim historical ATS/over-under probabilities or ROI.
No tracked simulations yet. Run a simulation to start building your record.
Market performance
Probability calibration & validation
These metrics use only settled forecasts saved in this browser. Brier scores measure probability accuracy (lower is better; 0 is perfect). ROI is hypothetical flat 1-unit betting on both sides of each market using the odds saved with each forecast; it is not proof of future performance.
Recent tracked predictions
Date / matchup
Model total
Actual total
Result
Markets
Data & limitations
V13.10 TEST adds a display-only preliminary matchup analyzer; V13.7 adds settled-forecast probability calibration while retaining official NBA PDF injury parsing and manual lineup-confirmation controls while retaining automatic box-score-derived team ratings and pace while retaining the V8 correlated-score simulation engine with correlated team scoring, separate team-specific score variation, overtime resolution for simulated ties, selectable 10k/25k/50k runs, and automatic prediction logging. The V10 projection uses ESPN completed-game scoring plus recent box-score-derived possession, offensive-rating, defensive-rating and pace estimates when available. These are calculated estimates from an unofficial ESPN feed, not official NBA tracking metrics; manual overrides remain available. The shared-score correlation is a configurable assumption, not an empirically fitted league parameter. Injury status is retrieved from ESPN where available; player-value point adjustments and starting-lineup confirmation remain manual. Final-score settlement depends on ESPN scoreboard availability. Local tracking data stays in this browser and should be exported periodically. Historical tracking is not proof of future betting performance; evaluate calibration, ROI and sample size before risking money.